The Leftie’s Dilemma

I  make no bones about being a leftie, but leftism isn’t why I decided to join the Green Party. Climate change matters. Even if the GP never get to win power, their popularity influences policy in the parties that do.  Whatever I think about the rest of the GP’s policies, they get my vote because climate change.

Now, Labour.

Roughly speaking, I’m with Corbyn 80% of the way. He’s right about railways and Trident and austerity, but wrong about renationalising electricity generation (we do it in our back yards now).  And I’m deeply suspicious of arguments to preserve or rebuild union structures that gave corrupting levels of power to barely-accountable General Secretaries.

I’m about 55% with Burnham and Cooper, and about 35% with Kendall.

And maybe 5%, being generous,  with Cameron or Osborne/Bojo/TessaMay

But I’m also 90% against Tories, 5% meh.

45% against Kendall, 20% meh

30% against Burnham and Cooper, and 15% meh.

10% against Corbyn and 15% meh.

So – if I paid my £3, which I won’t  – who should I vote for?

It all depends on what is the probability of their beating the Tories. As it happens, I don’t agree with the Blairist analysis that Labour can only win from the centre-right.   The difference between 1997 and 2020 is generation rent, and if they bother to vote the left can win.  But the Tory press have a lot of power and will stir up the immigration question, about the only rightwing issue that will motivate generation rent outside the capital.

Corbyn doesn’t pander to it, the others do.

Now, could I really bring myself to vote for centrist Labour candidates who would pander to the implications of the immigration question, and go soft on media ownership, to avoid a skewering?

If the Blairist view is right, then – holding my nose – it might be the only way to prevent five more years of rampant Tory rule.

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